As the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) publishes its annual UK poverty report, new analysis shows that under the central OBR projections, only Scotland will see child poverty rates fall by 2029 due to specific policies the devolved government has introduced.
It finds that welfare policies, such as the Scottish Child Payment and mitigating the two-child limit from 2026, are behind Scotland ‘bucking the trend’ of rising child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK.
The JRF warns that the child poverty outlook across the four nations is ‘shameful’, with only Scotland showing some improvement, however without further action the country will remain ‘some way’ off reaching its child poverty reduction targets.
It says that children in England and Wales are already ‘substantially’ more at risk of poverty with 4.3 million children currently experiencing poverty.
Without further policy changes, the JRF report find that by 2029:
- The gap between child poverty rates in Scotland compared to England and Wales will have grown, with Scotland moving from being 7 percentage points to 10 percentage points below the rest of the UK.
- Almost 1 in 3 children would still be in poverty in England, but in Scotland there would be closer to 1 in 5 children in poverty in large part due to Scotland-specific policies.
- Child poverty in Scotland would be just 70 per cent of the level in England.
- If the rest of the UK were to see the same reduction in the share of children in poverty achieved in Scotland, 800,000 fewer children would be in poverty.
For its report, the JRF examined changes in child poverty levels between January 2025 and January 2029 based on different assumptions about the growth of the UK economy. If the UK economy grows in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast over the next four years, child poverty rates in Scotland, already lower than the rest of the UK, will fall further by 2029.
It says that while a strong economy can increase wages and employment, that itself will not reduce poverty. Even if the UK economy grows significantly more than expected, overall child poverty rates show little change and could even rise if growth benefits higher income households more than lower income ones. Specific, targeted policies are needed if child poverty rates are to come down, argues the JRF.
The charity is urging the Government to include abolishment of the two-child limit and the introduction of a protected minimum amount of support to Universal Credit, as part of its Child Poverty Strategy, due to be published later this year.
The protected minimum amount of support below Universal Credit’s current basic rate would restrict the amount that benefit payments can be reduced by the benefit cap. This would also represent a first step towards an Essentials Guarantee in Universal Credit, ensuring that everyone can afford essentials like food and household bills, it says.
'We can’t expect children to be ready for school or able to learn if they’re going without the basics.'
Paul Kissack, chief executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), said, ‘Growing levels of poverty and insecurity are acting as a tightening brake on growth and opportunity. We can’t expect children to be ready for school or able to learn if they’re going without the basics.
‘Policy action must start with the system designed to help people meet their costs of living – social security. At the moment that system is not only failing to do its job but, worse, actively pushing some people into deeper poverty, through cruel limits and caps.
‘The British public believes that everyone should be able to afford the essentials. With its child poverty strategy later this year the Government has the opportunity to show it agrees. Any credible child poverty strategy must include policies that rebuild the tattered social security system.’
