Coronavirus: Impact of school closures could 'lead to lower skills' and harm the economy for decades - study

The research group, which includes academics from Cambridge, Bristol and Sheffield Universities, was brought together to measure the longterm impact of Covid-19. The report, Balancing the risks of pupils returning to schools, highlights the potential impact on children who have been affected by the lockdown. 

It calls for the safe return to schools for children to be a priority and clear plans to be put in place to minimise more disruption.

When infection rates rise in some locations, schools may need to close but such decisions should be determined by objective criteria and made on a school by school or local area basis. 

The report predicts that from the mid-2030s for the 50 years following that, around a quarter of the entire workforce will have lower skills. 

This could reduce their earning potential by 3 per cent a year and consequently lower the overall economic growth rate.

Apart from the longer-term economic consequences of school closures, the immediate negative impact on children’s mental and physical health, as well as their safety, will be considerable, it warns.

The report assesses the difficulties of balancing the significant costs to pupils and parents of school closures against the need to minimise the risk of Covid-19 infection of children, teachers and the wider community.

It concludes that the risk of reopening schools is not as high relative to many other activities -  for example, going to the gym or pub - while recognising that the evidence on the infection risk from school opening is still limited.

The experience of most other countries which have already taken this step supports this. By contrast, the evidence on the negative impact of closing schools is considerable and robust, it says.

Professor Simon Burgess, professor of economics at the University of Bristol and a lead author on the report, said, ‘We know how damaging it is for children to miss out on school.

‘The amount of school already missed due to the pandemic could impact on their earning potential by around 3 per cent a year throughout their lives and impact on productivity in the UK for decades. While it is still early days, there has been little evidence of surges in infection rates in countries that have opened up their schools, including countries that have fully reopened. While we have to do all we can to reduce the risk of transmission, we do need to get our children back to school.’

The risks of transmission within schools can be reduced through enhanced cleaning and distancing and wearing face coverings, the report says.

Disadvantaged children

The report also looks at the impact on inequality.

Professor Anna Vignoles, Professor of Education, Faculty of Education, University of Cambridge and a lead author of the report said, ‘Shutting down schools has impacted all children but the worst effects will be felt by those from lower socio-economic groups and with other vulnerabilities, such as a pre-existing mental health condition. 

‘Children from low income households in particular are more likely to lack the resources (space, equipment, home support) to engage fully with remote schooling.

‘Those with pre-existing conditions are more likely to experience a worsening of their mental health. This has to be taken into account in how we come out of this pandemic.’

The report said that as of week of 11 June only 32 per cent of Reception children were attending.

‘Persuading parents to send their children to school, particularly those from low socio-economic status backgrounds, may be a challenge though the Government has announced that in September usual sanctions can be applied to parents who do not send their children to school,’ it says.

Childcare

The report also highlights the impact on parents of school closures and particularly childcare responsibilities, which it says have largely fallen on women during the pandemic.

‘Although the primary purpose of school is not to provide childcare, it has become apparent during the pandemic that parents do rely on schools for this purpose. If most children are not in school, their parents must undertake childcare and ideally support their home schooling. This is only feasible for those who work at home. For other parents, school closures will significantly impact on their ability to undertake paid work,’ the report said.

‘The evidence is also clear that the closure of schools and nurseries has meant far greater caring burdens at home. Historically such caring responsibilities have tended to fall disproportionately on women, with implications for the disruption to their paid work^. ‘Evidence from data collected during the pandemic confirms that women have been doing a disproportionate amount of the childcare.' 

In couples where both parents are working, half of the hours that mothers work at home are combined with childcare, compared with just 30 per cent of fathers’ hours.

‘Single mothers have felt these pressures even more strongly, unable to share childcare and home schooling, and typically being in lower paid jobs to start with.’

The report sets out a number of recommendations for Government, including the need for data to understand the relative risks to children, parents and the wider community of opening and closing schools.

Professor Richard Wilkinson, of the School of Maths and Statistics at the University of Sheffield, said, ‘It is critical that the Government funds sufficient systematic testing in September to enable future decision-making around school closures to be evidence-based in the event of a second wave of infections in the winter.’