Early years workforce must grow by 8 per cent to deliver the expansion of the 30 hours

Modelling from the think tank Nesta predicts there will be up to a 46 per cent rise in hours spent in early years settings for one and two-year-olds by 2028.

• Number of graduates in nurseries 'plummeted' over last decade

To meet this increased demand, it predicts that 27,500 early years professionals will  be needed, an 8 per cent expansion of the current workforce. According to Nesta, the sector has lost 3 per cent of the total workforce since 2019.

Further findings reveal:

• By 2028, when the scheme will be fully operational, there will be 285,000 one-year-olds and 323,000 two-year-olds eligible for the expanded entitlement.
• The number of hours spent in early years settings will rise by 46 per cent for one-year-olds and 33 per cent for two-year-olds by 2028.

Nesta says additional demand for early years education will come from an increase in childcare hours among parents already in work, and from the 60,000 people that the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates will return to work as a result of the policy.

It refers to data from the IFS that suggests eligibility for the extended 30 hours amounts to a cash transfer to families of (an average) £80 per week.

'We are about to massively increase demand in a sector that is already struggling.'

Fionnuala O’Reilly, head of policy in Nesta’s fairer start team, and author of the report, said, ‘We are about to massively increase demand in a sector that is already struggling.

‘Our research suggests that an expansion of seven to eight percent of the current workforce is needed to meet this demand by 2028.

'This comes at a time when the sector is contracting - staffing levels haven’t recovered from the pandemic, the number of graduate level professionals is falling and the number of providers offering free entitlements to families is also declining.'

‘Structural changes are needed to turn the tide on these trends, starting with pay and conditions for staff.’

Early years salaries

Additional analysis by Nesta found that the pay of early years professionals is more comparable with those working in retail than other education professions such as primary school teaching.

The researchers analysed a 'novel data set' called the Open Jobs Observatory which holds millions of job adverts. Looking at data from 2021-23 the research found that median salaries for early years workers are between £22,500-£25,000.

The think tank says this is significantly less than median salaries in the rest of the education sector and is more in line with professions like retail and hospitality.