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In my view: Unsure analysis of Sure Start

Ministers need not panic. Supporters of Labour's flagship programme for deprived under-fives just need to take a deep breath. A Government-funded study has failed to find improvement so far in Sure Start children relative to other deprived children. But though the programme has been dealt a blow, experts agree the problem lies in the hard-to-measure design of Sure Start and in Government pressure for early results. How can you prove a miracle effect on the hardest-to-change children when the first Sure Starts had been open only 18 months? Researchers compared 19,000 under-fives, half in Sure Start areas, the rest from similarly deprived districts, but found no discernible developmental, language or behavioural differences. Crucially, they were not asked to compare children actually in Sure Start programmes, only those living in the area, many of whom had no contact with it.

Researchers compared 19,000 under-fives, half in Sure Start areas, the rest from similarly deprived districts, but found no discernible developmental, language or behavioural differences. Crucially, they were not asked to compare children actually in Sure Start programmes, only those living in the area, many of whom had no contact with it.

The ambiguous results are not the fault of the researchers, whose problems were legion. Poor areas have a high turnover of families, so any evaluation missed many children with a lot of Sure Start help who moved away, while catching newcomers who might have had none.

Every Sure Start is different but without a fixed template, researchers couldn't know what they were measuring. In future far more reliable data will come from following the progress of the same nine-month-olds tested this time, monitored every two years.

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