Government admits an extra 40,000 staff are needed for 30 hours expansion

Keegan made the admission on Tuesday as the first phase of the expanded offer, 15 hours for two-year-olds, came in, and as parents challenged the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, over claims of a shortfall of staff and places for children, which the sector has warned of since the policy was first announced.

• Government starts to roll out childcare expansion, as sector highlights ongoing 'challenges'

The Prime Minister has continued to argue that the ‘flagship’ policy is ‘on track’ however, while Keegan dismissed problems as ‘teething troubles’ and said she was ‘very confident’ about the first phase of the scheme.

Labour's education secretary has said they will not commit to the full rollout of the offer if elected, but will continue with existing funded hours.

Responding to comments from the chief executive of the Early Years Alliance, Neil Leitch, in an interview with Sky News in which he demanded ‘urgent action’ from Government  to invest in the infrastructure needed to deliver the expanded entitlement to ensure its success, Keegan said that while ‘some people may not get their first choice’ of nursery, there was ‘sufficiency of places’ for the first phase.

She went on to say that an extra 13,000 staff had been hired, but by the end of the rollout, by September 2025, about 40,000 more people will be needed in the sector.

In February, the Government launched a early years recruitment campaign to try and boost the numbers working within early years settings, along with a sign up bonus within certain local authority areas, which the sector has argued will not tackle the retention crisis.

It comes after a report published by the Early Education and Childcare Coalition in November estimated 50,000 additional staff would be needed in 2024 and again in 2025 to maintain existing provision and provide the expanded entitlement. The figures were based upon current turnover intention rates combined with the expected increase in demand for childcare places.

Prior to that, research by Nesta suggested the workforce would need to grow by 8 per cent, equivalent of an extra 27,500 staff, to meet increased demand when the expanded offer came in.

According to the latest official figures, as of last year there were an estimated 347,300 childcare staff. A total of 12,900 staff joined the workforce, around 3.9 per cent in 2023, compared to a 1.8 per cent rise in 2022.

The shadow education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, argued that staffing levels would ‘have to rise to unprecedented levels’ in the next year to recruit the number needed to deliver the 30 hours expansion.

Phillipson went on to say that Labour is not ‘committing to complete the rollout of the expanded hours’ if it gains power in the next general election as the policy ‘cannot be delivered’. The party has instead said that parents will not lose existing ‘free’ hours, and has promised to carry out a wider review of childcare.